[{"id":200372791,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Hoover Monetary Policy Conference 2026 Overview Essay ","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"hoover-monetary-policy-conference-f71","post_date":"2026-06-02T22:50:49.794Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/hoover-monetary-policy-conference-f71","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":34},"restacks":4,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!M_5F!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4e8bb84c-7f1b-46fa-b68d-441172e54f92_2000x1334.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This is an overview essay.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This is an overview essay. You can find the conference schedule, videos, and slides here or in my last post. The essay original is on the Hoover website here, with nicer formatting and pictures. This is joint with Valerie Ramey, Michael Bordo and Tom Church. If this is too long for your email client, come to the original at grumpy-economist.com or via t…","wordcount":4319,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"7183e955-3b7a-4ede-9c75-b0924d798e0a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Macroeconomics","slug":"macroeconomics","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[189,106,50],"population":379},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[12,76,148],"population":5},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[227.25941422594144,181.2100418410042,150.14058577405856],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[148,110,106],"population":66},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[88,57,52],"population":283},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[166,185,212],"population":3}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":34,"comment_count":1,"child_comment_count":1,"audio_items":[{"post_id":200372791,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/200372791/tts/7112cac9-9710-4b62-a047-8796afe0c5b5/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":200370828,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Hoover Monetary Policy Conference 2026","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"hoover-monetary-policy-conference-ebd","post_date":"2026-06-02T22:44:49.464Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/hoover-monetary-policy-conference-ebd","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":30},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/coQJzfCnBys","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"The slides and videos from the May 8 2026 Hoover Monetary Policy Conference are up.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"The slides and videos from the May 8 2026 Hoover Monetary Policy Conference are up. I echo here, or go to the Hoover Website here in case my copy-paste doesn’t work. Valerie Ramey, Michael Bordo, Tom Church and I wrote an overview essay which you can find here","wordcount":308,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"659b9019-e406-4e0f-b874-46db434d4708","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation ","slug":"regulation-11f","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"743cb57a-9dc6-4bff-85e3-1bbeaea26100","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Euro","slug":"euro","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":30,"comment_count":0,"child_comment_count":0,"audio_items":[{"post_id":200370828,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/200370828/tts/46f53495-cf43-48b9-a71c-283a04dceced/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":200025640,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Tech Stock Singularity","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"tech-stock-singularity","post_date":"2026-05-31T23:44:25.440Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/tech-stock-singularity","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":107},"restacks":9,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":200025640,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"The huge SpaceX IPO has spawned the following speculation: Index funds are forced to buy shares of new large companies, in proportion to their market capitalization.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"The huge SpaceX IPO has spawned the following speculation: Index funds are forced to buy shares of new large companies, in proportion to their market capitalization. That’s a classic inelastic demand. So, as the price goes up, they buy more, sending the price up even further. Maybe to infinity. The singularity has arrived.","wordcount":1916,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"0c1c4328-b9e0-47c7-9f1e-a7f32b160a47","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Asset Pricing","slug":"asset-pricing","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":107,"comment_count":13,"child_comment_count":9,"audio_items":[{"post_id":200025640,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/200025640/tts/3def356d-9ec1-45ab-b71c-3f4d8bf228f3/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":198564760,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Warsh's Challenges: Monetary Policy","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"warshs-challenges-monetary-policy-730","post_date":"2026-05-20T14:38:11.449Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/warshs-challenges-monetary-policy-730","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":55},"restacks":1,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":198564760,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This is an OpEd at the Washington Post, their title “How to protect the economy from the ghosts of 1979.”","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This is an OpEd at the Washington Post, their title “How to protect the economy from the ghosts of 1979.”","wordcount":291,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":55,"comment_count":17,"child_comment_count":8,"audio_items":[{"post_id":198564760,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/198564760/tts/6f639fbd-1c96-4dba-a320-43a03dae37c3/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":198483392,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Two books","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"two-books","post_date":"2026-05-19T23:10:34.147Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/two-books","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":52},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vgI5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F632e2c05-eb37-4b8c-a0e7-74f0bf8eb531_1700x2550.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"The Hoover Press just released two books that I co-edited, that readers may find interesting","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"The Hoover Press just released two books that I co-edited, that readers may find interesting","wordcount":386,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"0c1c4328-b9e0-47c7-9f1e-a7f32b160a47","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Asset Pricing","slug":"asset-pricing","hidden":false},{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"7183e955-3b7a-4ede-9c75-b0924d798e0a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Macroeconomics","slug":"macroeconomics","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[188,148,68],"population":1177},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[100,68,28],"population":14},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[228,194,156],"population":14},"Muted":{"rgb":[167,114,90],"population":73},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[94,55,41],"population":204},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[204,171,138],"population":731}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":52,"comment_count":1,"child_comment_count":1,"audio_items":[{"post_id":198483392,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/198483392/tts/83b3d3f2-d42b-4d5a-a1d5-ff4b7201b1fe/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":198177583,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Has the Time Come for Dollarization in the Americas?","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"has-the-time-come-for-dollarization","post_date":"2026-05-17T21:36:44.004Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/has-the-time-come-for-dollarization","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":56},"restacks":1,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bh9q!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3a3bfe54-8e2d-4ab5-b6c8-ddd34ea1ec9a_1416x802.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":198177583,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Last week I did a very interesting (to me at least) panel at CATO on dollarization in Latin America, focusing on Argentina.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Last week I did a very interesting (to me at least) panel at CATO on dollarization in Latin America, focusing on Argentina. I was with Emilio Ocampo and David Malpass and moderated by Ian Vásquez. Yes, we agreed, but why and how is subtle. Link here at Cato","wordcount":66,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[28,68,164],"population":803},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[28,68,156],"population":495},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[178,187,220],"population":18},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,101,168],"population":170},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[23.282608695652183,56.54347826086952,129.7173913043478],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[170,180,209],"population":49}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":56,"comment_count":10,"child_comment_count":4,"audio_items":[{"post_id":198177583,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/198177583/tts/86d094c1-61e2-40ff-b327-adc142c990f8/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":197500080,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"1979 update ","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"1979-update","post_date":"2026-05-13T12:23:19.417Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/1979-update","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":64},"restacks":6,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gi-Z!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F30eb708d-1141-447a-a1c3-274818dd1f98_816x592.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"From Jesper Rangvid Disclaimer, this is thought provoking fun, not serious analysis.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"From Jesper Rangvid Disclaimer, this is thought provoking fun, not serious analysis.","wordcount":12,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[200,156,132],"population":2},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[91.62808988764044,58.85056179775282,40.97191011235956],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[244,188,145],"population":9},"Muted":{"rgb":[180,132,108],"population":1},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[105.7247191011236,67.90449438202246,47.275280898876396],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[202,172,156],"population":4}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":64,"comment_count":6,"child_comment_count":6,"audio_items":[{"post_id":197500080,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/197500080/tts/b3570651-495a-4875-abee-760016412623/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":196809382,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Book Sale","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"book-sale","post_date":"2026-05-07T17:55:05.632Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/book-sale","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":42},"restacks":2,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wTfd!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0f9e4204-db62-46b3-94ae-5652bb4c6fcc_1180x1040.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"It’s a great moment to buy usually overpriced books at Princeton:","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"It’s a great moment to buy usually overpriced books at Princeton:","wordcount":13,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"0c1c4328-b9e0-47c7-9f1e-a7f32b160a47","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Asset Pricing","slug":"asset-pricing","hidden":false},{"id":"4e98c4f7-2fa5-4b1b-a4aa-4c6363b7208a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Interesting Papers","slug":"interesting-papers","hidden":false},{"id":"743cb57a-9dc6-4bff-85e3-1bbeaea26100","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Euro","slug":"euro","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[252,172,12],"population":524},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[129,74,12],"population":7},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[243,100,139],"population":397},"Muted":{"rgb":[94,156,118],"population":24},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[65,107,48],"population":21},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[187,207,157],"population":290}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":42,"comment_count":0,"child_comment_count":0,"audio_items":[{"post_id":196809382,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/196809382/tts/fc235ae3-70fe-460a-9eff-cdc6454e367d/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":192806182,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"The Iran War Doesn’t Have to Be a Rerun of ‘That ’70s Show’","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"the-iran-war-doesnt-have-to-be-a","post_date":"2026-05-01T13:00:47.327Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/the-iran-war-doesnt-have-to-be-a","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":84},"restacks":7,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"Rising energy prices turn into recessions only if bad government policies compound their effects","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Rising energy prices turn into recessions only if bad government policies compound their effects","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Wall Street Journal April 1 2026. Now that 30 days have passed, I can post it.","wordcount":828,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"7183e955-3b7a-4ede-9c75-b0924d798e0a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Macroeconomics","slug":"macroeconomics","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d2c93d4f-c719-48c5-80f2-1d9cd73bba4f","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Energy","slug":"energy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":84,"comment_count":19,"child_comment_count":12,"audio_items":[{"post_id":192806182,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/192806182/tts/1cd3bce9-ecef-413b-acfe-4a354f9b944b/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":195893396,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Inside the Fed's Balance Sheet","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"inside-the-feds-balance-sheet","post_date":"2026-04-29T16:58:29.706Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inside-the-feds-balance-sheet","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":49},"restacks":2,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wn82!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4f09e9-0821-4f8e-b03e-e2c2de4e964f_1932x1288.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"A video and podcast interview with Darrell Duffie, based on his excellent recent article. Click here to watch/listen via Hoover’s Freedom Frequency series.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"A video and podcast interview with Darrell Duffie, based on his excellent recent article. Click here to watch/listen via Hoover’s Freedom Frequency series.","wordcount":24,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"4e98c4f7-2fa5-4b1b-a4aa-4c6363b7208a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Interesting Papers","slug":"interesting-papers","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[50,60,108],"population":12},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[36,52,90],"population":723},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[164.36202531645569,172.75443037974685,213.03797468354432],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[156,108,92],"population":1},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[44,55,93],"population":459},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[181,182,189],"population":411}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":49,"comment_count":3,"child_comment_count":3,"audio_items":[{"post_id":195893396,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/195893396/tts/5f47b97f-e282-4425-8397-7a38d663ddeb/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":192640537,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"War and Interest Rates ","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"war-and-interest-rates","post_date":"2026-03-30T22:04:18.249Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/war-and-interest-rates","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":105},"restacks":11,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!vPhx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fecd9b6a9-7435-4511-98c6-290a65b4af89_1642x1094.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"You knew about oil prices, discussed in a previous post. Now attention is turning to the sharp rise of long-term interest rates. From Ian Smith, Sam Fleming, and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times:","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"You knew about oil prices, discussed in a previous post. Now attention is turning to the sharp rise of long-term interest rates. From Ian Smith, Sam Fleming, and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times:","wordcount":1088,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d2c93d4f-c719-48c5-80f2-1d9cd73bba4f","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Energy","slug":"energy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[87,128,177],"population":54},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[42.0439024390244,64.1439024390244,90.5560975609756],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[236,133,162],"population":24},"Muted":{"rgb":[157,134,166],"population":39},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[48.51219512195122,74.01219512195122,104.48780487804878],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[167,188,212],"population":9}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":105,"comment_count":13,"child_comment_count":7,"audio_items":[{"post_id":192640537,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/192640537/tts/42c20c21-c658-4e5f-8fb7-a88fe13b3642/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":191482581,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"How to turn a price shock into inflation","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"how-to-turn-a-price-shock-into-inflation","post_date":"2026-03-19T15:00:36.769Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/how-to-turn-a-price-shock-into-inflation","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":154},"restacks":20,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"A friend in Greece sends this article on how to deal with high energy prices.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"A friend in Greece sends this article on how to deal with high energy prices. The temptation echoes throughout Europe, and likely the US as well.","wordcount":544,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"8de44ac2-4d4a-42da-98fc-aa6e7ffce0bb","publication_id":2178684,"name":"supply and demand","slug":"supply-and-demand","hidden":false},{"id":"ad99362f-e79b-4d78-861c-5296f4a141ef","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Disincentives ","slug":"disincentives","hidden":false},{"id":"d2c93d4f-c719-48c5-80f2-1d9cd73bba4f","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Energy","slug":"energy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":154,"comment_count":28,"child_comment_count":17,"audio_items":[{"post_id":191482581,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/191482581/tts/732ee8a3-2ee0-4a0e-b074-9b015271d7e5/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":190972972,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Smith and Jefferson at 250","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"smith-and-jefferson-at-250","post_date":"2026-03-17T13:03:20.009Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/smith-and-jefferson-at-250","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":143},"restacks":18,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8T7K!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff999a5d4-9e4c-4eeb-adce-73f81e90ba75_1910x1582.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":190972972,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Last week was the 250th anniversary of the Wealth of Nations. For the Hoover “weekly rants” I looked up what must be the top two Smith quotes:","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Last week was the 250th anniversary of the Wealth of Nations. For the Hoover “weekly rants” I looked up what must be the top two Smith quotes:","wordcount":823,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false},{"id":"e473372c-7b96-4497-9da5-e578e35f00b9","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Growth ","slug":"growth","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[236.78571428571436,133.57142857142844,18.21428571428565],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[123.12857142857146,69.45714285714278,9.471428571428543],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[252,235,216],"population":164},"Muted":{"rgb":[140,132,116],"population":33},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[76,76,60],"population":10},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[201,195,176],"population":489}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":143,"comment_count":41,"child_comment_count":16,"audio_items":[{"post_id":190972972,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/190972972/tts/a84afd37-04da-485e-8505-9251ca2cc20a/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":191031540,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"War and Oil","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"war-and-oil","post_date":"2026-03-15T15:54:07.022Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/war-and-oil","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":137},"restacks":24,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JZyH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38eb46fe-e4ea-4679-a829-902d1da3d4df_4592x2040.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I’ve had a running debate with some colleagues over the economic consequences of the war.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I’ve had a running debate with some colleagues over the economic consequences of the war. Are we destined to replay 1979, as an earlier post playfully suggested?","wordcount":691,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"d2c93d4f-c719-48c5-80f2-1d9cd73bba4f","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Energy","slug":"energy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[102,102,252],"population":23},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[2.5500000000000025,2.5500000000000025,130.05],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[132,132,252],"population":8},"Muted":{"rgb":[132,132,132],"population":2},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[100,100,100],"population":23},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[180,180,209],"population":29}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":137,"comment_count":36,"child_comment_count":18,"audio_items":[{"post_id":191031540,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/191031540/tts/6c4779c0-7af1-4aee-90df-8a55dcd38fc0/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":189381774,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"EFG Review","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"efg-review","post_date":"2026-03-02T04:54:03.624Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/efg-review","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":86},"restacks":9,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ANMg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fff027716-bc92-4e81-8528-249c80bd0676_1352x590.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":189381774,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Friday, I had the pleasure of attending the NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth meeting at the San Francisco Fed, organized by Luigi Bocola and Linda Tesar.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Friday, I had the pleasure of attending the NBER Economic Fluctuations and Growth meeting at the San Francisco Fed, organized by Luigi Bocola and Linda Tesar. It was a great conference overall. I caught up a bit on issues that I don’t pay daily attention to.","wordcount":2637,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"4e98c4f7-2fa5-4b1b-a4aa-4c6363b7208a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Interesting Papers","slug":"interesting-papers","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[60,132,188],"population":1},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[32.08064516129032,70.57741935483871,100.51935483870969],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[250,180,118],"population":25},"Muted":{"rgb":[132,132,132],"population":32},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[37.01612903225806,81.43548387096774,115.98387096774194],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[212,187,164],"population":70}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":86,"comment_count":9,"child_comment_count":7,"audio_items":[{"post_id":189381774,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/189381774/tts/111850bf-5ef5-4ba6-8a96-d20119d92689/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":189211794,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Does History Rhyme?","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"does-history-rhyme","post_date":"2026-02-26T03:13:36.661Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/does-history-rhyme","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":69},"restacks":5,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hbxy!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4aa6cdb-e26b-4f11-a0a3-87f587e448e7_1708x1206.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":189211794,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Update on a graph I’ve been following for a few years, most recently last year, this one courtesy of Niall Ferguson.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Update on a graph I’ve been following for a few years, most recently last year, this one courtesy of Niall Ferguson.","wordcount":58,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[246,174,44],"population":4},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[127.17545454545456,83.77909090909091,5.4245454545454415],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[252,212,124],"population":2},"Muted":{"rgb":[188,173,116],"population":10},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[146.74090909090913,96.66818181818181,6.259090909090879],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[204,190,147],"population":10}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":69,"comment_count":22,"child_comment_count":15,"audio_items":[{"post_id":189211794,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/189211794/tts/b24875b1-d520-4eb9-ae5f-ecb643037fb0/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":189076098,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Refine","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"refine","post_date":"2026-02-24T23:21:54.159Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/refine","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":158},"restacks":17,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":189076098,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I recently tried refine, an AI tool for refining academic articles, developed by Yann Calvó López and Ben Golub.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I recently tried refine, an AI tool for refining academic articles, developed by Yann Calvó López and Ben Golub. I sent it the current draft of my booklet on inflation, to see what it can offer. I just used it once so far, with the free trial mode. I will be a regular user forever.","wordcount":2070,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"10ff6c26-8f4e-4b5f-b9dc-20144d2d1ef4","publication_id":2178684,"name":"AI","slug":"ai","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":158,"comment_count":32,"child_comment_count":25,"audio_items":[{"post_id":189076098,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/189076098/tts/ee825c83-40e9-4c09-a044-f4abc0dcbd25/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":188275697,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"A new Fed-Treasury Accord?","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"a-new-fed-treasury-accord","post_date":"2026-02-17T16:44:35.465Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/a-new-fed-treasury-accord","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":65},"restacks":11,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":188275697,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"A reporter asked me about a new Fed-Treasury Accord, referencing articles in Bloomberg and Forbes about Kevin Warsh’s comments.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"A reporter asked me about a new Fed-Treasury Accord, referencing articles in Bloomberg and Forbes about Kevin Warsh’s comments. What do I think?","wordcount":1444,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":65,"comment_count":22,"child_comment_count":14,"audio_items":[{"post_id":188275697,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/188275697/tts/cf7fcaae-d982-4215-96b4-9315b8bafcfe/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":188154935,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"1951","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"1951","post_date":"2026-02-16T19:37:05.358Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/1951","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":45},"restacks":2,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kDP4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6eb32204-97cf-4cd7-96ec-cd3fa9b6ad6a_1140x450.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":188154935,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"What happened in the great tussle for Fed independence in 1951, and what lessons does that have for today?","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"What happened in the great tussle for Fed independence in 1951, and what lessons does that have for today? A colleague shared with me a great article “The Treasury-Fed Accord: A New Narrative Account” by Robert Hetzel and Ralph Leach in the 2001 Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Quarterly Review.","wordcount":2780,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"4e98c4f7-2fa5-4b1b-a4aa-4c6363b7208a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Interesting Papers","slug":"interesting-papers","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[111,172,238],"population":70},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[14.001242236024844,64.24099378881988,118.59875776397516],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[162,201,242],"population":40},"Muted":{"rgb":[108,124,142],"population":3},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[16.155279503105596,74.12422360248448,136.8447204968944],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[180,220,212],"population":5}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":45,"comment_count":12,"child_comment_count":12,"audio_items":[{"post_id":188154935,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/188154935/tts/a39aa255-f2c4-4bf1-82b5-b19296298f61/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":187821610,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Inflation","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"inflation","post_date":"2026-02-13T04:28:43.545Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/inflation","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":107},"restacks":11,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!2nnq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd2741f6c-04ce-450d-b864-a41d099a7eb3_1176x1700.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":187821610,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I just posted a draft of a short book with this title (click on the link for the book draft), resulting from the Karl Brunner Lecture I gave last fall.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I just posted a draft of a short book with this title (click on the link for the book draft), resulting from the Karl Brunner Lecture I gave last fall. (Slides for the Brunner Lecture here.) It covers fiscal theory through the eyes of many episodes including the recent inflation and zero bound era. It also summarize work I’ve been doing since trying to…","wordcount":142,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"743cb57a-9dc6-4bff-85e3-1bbeaea26100","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Euro","slug":"euro","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[127.5,127.5,127.5],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[66.3,66.3,66.3],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[188.7,188.7,188.7],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[175,175,175],"population":122},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[76.5,76.5,76.5],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[188,188,188],"population":101}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":107,"comment_count":13,"child_comment_count":11,"audio_items":[{"post_id":187821610,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/187821610/tts/17ea11d5-46c2-4727-a3bf-593e4b43b65b/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":187758255,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Big Picture Asset Pricing ","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"big-picture-asset-pricing","post_date":"2026-02-12T16:15:26.822Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/big-picture-asset-pricing","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":36},"restacks":4,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/MnTdy2HrADA","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This is a keynote talk I gave at the Global Banking and Finance Conference - XLRI Delhi NCR 2026.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This is a keynote talk I gave at the Global Banking and Finance Conference - XLRI Delhi NCR 2026. They asked me to think about current trends in asset pricing research. I chose to put some thoughts on that in the big picture, what have we been doing for the last 50 years. Why do stocks prices vary so bloody much? Why do stocks fall in recessions — or wh…","wordcount":141,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"0c1c4328-b9e0-47c7-9f1e-a7f32b160a47","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Asset Pricing","slug":"asset-pricing","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":36,"comment_count":3,"child_comment_count":3,"audio_items":[{"post_id":187758255,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/187758255/tts/712fd958-6310-4f85-ad1a-d24a06a402b0/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":187642368,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Misplaced Nostalgia","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"misplaced-nostalgia","post_date":"2026-02-11T16:16:25.468Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/misplaced-nostalgia","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":104},"restacks":17,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!AFnP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58198de1-d106-4e27-afb9-7cc9d53ea0c7_1476x902.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This short article appeared in the Coolidge Review, where it is much more nicely formatted.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This short article appeared in the Coolidge Review, where it is much more nicely formatted. I edited slightly, as I am incapable of not fussing with prose, and restored some cuts.","wordcount":1282,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"042edb63-a3cf-493a-aba3-48399deeb58c","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Taxes","slug":"taxes","hidden":false},{"id":"8b4eeef8-1e56-424b-b6d5-adadb5812f4f","publication_id":2178684,"name":"health economics","slug":"health-economics","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"e473372c-7b96-4497-9da5-e578e35f00b9","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Growth ","slug":"growth","hidden":false},{"id":"ee7f3f4b-d9d7-433a-b487-9891800c846d","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Housing","slug":"housing","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[233,70,44],"population":13},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[94,53,28],"population":236},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[215,185,153],"population":256},"Muted":{"rgb":[164,121,98],"population":12},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[93,63,44],"population":38},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[179,187,178],"population":242}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":104,"comment_count":58,"child_comment_count":31,"audio_items":[{"post_id":187642368,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/187642368/tts/016fb5a3-e1fb-4f96-92cd-06416f4cd8ca/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":186788675,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Balancing the Budget, P.J. O'Rourke","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"balancing-the-budget-pj-orourke","post_date":"2026-02-04T14:03:07.032Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/balancing-the-budget-pj-orourke","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":98},"restacks":15,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dYx3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7402da15-4beb-4a9e-b377-efe72dfdbe72_345x522.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"It’s so hard, everyone says.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"It’s so hard, everyone says. No it isn’t.","wordcount":2848,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"042edb63-a3cf-493a-aba3-48399deeb58c","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Taxes","slug":"taxes","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[232,186,90],"population":208},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[159,84,56],"population":36},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[134,175,244],"population":190},"Muted":{"rgb":[177,120,77],"population":28},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[44,46,46],"population":205},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[193,208,221],"population":154}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":98,"comment_count":14,"child_comment_count":12,"audio_items":[{"post_id":186788675,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/186788675/tts/a12252c7-4fee-44c6-acdc-7f3983dac01e/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":186575220,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Trump on Tariffs and Investment","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"trump-on-tariffs-and-investment","post_date":"2026-02-03T14:03:45.369Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/trump-on-tariffs-and-investment","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":105},"restacks":10,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"President Trump published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on Jan 30.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"President Trump published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on Jan 30. You might have missed it in all the brouhaha. It’s not often a President writes an editorial explaining his economic policies in detail. And, one presumes that an effort like this is vetted by his economic team, so it provides an interesting insight in to their thinking as well.","wordcount":1165,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"d078acd3-7b62-4d63-b1f9-8b0b23d64aab","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Trade","slug":"trade","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":105,"comment_count":42,"child_comment_count":25,"audio_items":[{"post_id":186575220,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/186575220/tts/e4a50164-1725-4fe1-b293-784336e88419/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":186572049,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"IEA Interview on economic policy","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"iea-interview-on-economic-policy","post_date":"2026-02-02T03:17:17.958Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/iea-interview-on-economic-policy","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":39},"restacks":3,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/youtube/w_728,c_limit/Agl7DHwX80U","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":null,"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I did this interview with Tom Clougherty while visiting the Institute of Economic Affairs in London last September.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":null,"wordcount":43,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"042edb63-a3cf-493a-aba3-48399deeb58c","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Taxes","slug":"taxes","hidden":false},{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"ad99362f-e79b-4d78-861c-5296f4a141ef","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Disincentives ","slug":"disincentives","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"e473372c-7b96-4497-9da5-e578e35f00b9","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Growth ","slug":"growth","hidden":false},{"id":"ee7f3f4b-d9d7-433a-b487-9891800c846d","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Housing","slug":"housing","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":39,"comment_count":5,"child_comment_count":3,"audio_items":[{"post_id":186572049,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/186572049/tts/215de6fd-a9ca-4027-8d0c-d5cfed5baa2d/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":181246419,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Video","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"video","post_date":"2025-12-15T01:13:01.488Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/video","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":52},"restacks":4,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":181246419,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I’ve been traveling a bit lately and catching up on some writing deadlines, hence less posting than usual.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I’ve been traveling a bit lately and catching up on some writing deadlines, hence less posting than usual. In the meantime, I’ve been doing some videos that readers might enjoy.","wordcount":239,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"042edb63-a3cf-493a-aba3-48399deeb58c","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Taxes","slug":"taxes","hidden":false},{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"37480232-f608-4cc6-bde3-a1f0d33c9b37","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Climate","slug":"climate","hidden":false},{"id":"8f0ce830-c620-42de-8eba-1abf6986a613","publication_id":2178684,"name":"News","slug":"news","hidden":false},{"id":"ad99362f-e79b-4d78-861c-5296f4a141ef","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Disincentives ","slug":"disincentives","hidden":false},{"id":"d078acd3-7b62-4d63-b1f9-8b0b23d64aab","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Trade","slug":"trade","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":52,"comment_count":11,"child_comment_count":9,"audio_items":[{"post_id":181246419,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/181246419/tts/eecbd688-16ce-433a-90b1-4a186a475751/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":176892094,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Trump and monetary policy: Full Oped ","social_title":"Trump and monetary policy: Full Oped ","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"trump-and-monetary-policy-full-oped","post_date":"2025-11-23T16:01:26.884Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/trump-and-monetary-policy-full-oped","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":91},"restacks":10,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":176892094,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This is a WSJ oped that I can now publish in its entirety.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This is a WSJ oped that I can now publish in its entirety. I posted some expanded comments with charts and graphs here a month ago. They may be especially useful to document my summaries of new-Keynesian models and empirical work.","wordcount":871,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":91,"comment_count":42,"child_comment_count":19,"audio_items":[{"post_id":176892094,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/176892094/tts/28983368-ddde-49d6-881d-08e9e5c90c20/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":179651202,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Brazilian Inflation and Disinflation","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"brazilian-inflation-and-disinflation","post_date":"2025-11-22T20:50:08.402Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/brazilian-inflation-and-disinflation","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":83},"restacks":12,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cTSx!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffc0b0d53-a4bb-400a-9b8a-2a970f4e7f93_802x784.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":179651202,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Last week I read a nice capsule history of Brazilian inflation, by Pedro Carvalho.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Last week I read a nice capsule history of Brazilian inflation, by Pedro Carvalho. Pedro is a Stanford graduate, and I helped as adviser on the project. This builds on and complements the Brazil chapter by Joao Ayres, Marcio Garcia, Diogo Guillen, and Patrick Kehoe in the excellent","wordcount":1667,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[127.5,127.5,127.5],"population":0},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[66.3,66.3,66.3],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[188.7,188.7,188.7],"population":0},"Muted":{"rgb":[124,124,124],"population":11},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[47,47,47],"population":105},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[193,193,193],"population":82}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":83,"comment_count":7,"child_comment_count":6,"audio_items":[{"post_id":179651202,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/179651202/tts/1ed334cb-0680-429d-a3fb-bb9f3504f99a/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":179053228,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Price Control Apologia","social_title":null,"search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"price-control-apologia","post_date":"2025-11-16T19:16:04.773Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/price-control-apologia","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":285},"restacks":57,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":179053228,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"My colleague and friend Neale Mahoney writes in favor of price and rent controls in the Sunday New York Times, with Bharat Ramamurti.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"My colleague and friend Neale Mahoney writes in favor of price and rent controls in the Sunday New York Times, with Bharat Ramamurti.","wordcount":3155,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8de44ac2-4d4a-42da-98fc-aa6e7ffce0bb","publication_id":2178684,"name":"supply and demand","slug":"supply-and-demand","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":285,"comment_count":84,"child_comment_count":52,"audio_items":[{"post_id":179053228,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/179053228/tts/437bf06c-18f8-4df9-9bf9-3eb721e69ba2/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":178384510,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Causation Does not Imply Variation","social_title":"Causation Does not Imply Variation","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"causation-does-not-imply-variation","post_date":"2025-11-10T04:55:29.222Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/causation-does-not-imply-variation","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":174},"restacks":34,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":178384510,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Tyler Muir suggested this lovely catchphrase, which should stand next to “Correlation does not imply causation” in our menagerie of econometric sayings.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Tyler Muir suggested this lovely catchphrase, which should stand next to “Correlation does not imply causation” in our menagerie of econometric sayings. “Do changes in x cause changes in y?” does not answer the question “what are the most important causes of variation in y?” Many identified causal effects explain very little variation, and we know ther…","wordcount":3276,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"4e98c4f7-2fa5-4b1b-a4aa-4c6363b7208a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Interesting Papers","slug":"interesting-papers","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":174,"comment_count":27,"child_comment_count":17,"audio_items":[{"post_id":178384510,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/178384510/tts/3bf170b7-f233-4b09-96cd-001ba7fa8d28/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":178366589,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"NBER Asset Pricing Lessons","social_title":"NBER Asset Pricing Lessons","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"nber-asset-pricing-lessons","post_date":"2025-11-08T23:53:06.814Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/nber-asset-pricing-lessons","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":61},"restacks":7,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rcbu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7255ca6d-a64a-4aaa-853a-2b9284f8592c_1486x802.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":178366589,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I had the great pleasure of attending the morning session of the NBER Asset Pricing Program at Stanford last Friday.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I had the great pleasure of attending the morning session of the NBER Asset Pricing Program at Stanford last Friday. (The afternoon looked just as good, but I couldn’t make it.) A quick review of the three thought-provoking papers I saw. By the way, they were all beautifully presented. Teaching MBAs really does sharpen those public speaking skills!","wordcount":1355,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"0c1c4328-b9e0-47c7-9f1e-a7f32b160a47","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Asset Pricing","slug":"asset-pricing","hidden":false},{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[212,164,132],"population":1},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[12,36,68],"population":14},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[212,172,148],"population":1},"Muted":{"rgb":[92,132,156],"population":12},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[42,60,86],"population":72},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,172,204],"population":1}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":61,"comment_count":5,"child_comment_count":5,"audio_items":[{"post_id":178366589,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/178366589/tts/30f35adc-4ad2-4f68-a9db-e7f934ab6fa0/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":177620746,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Central bank independence talk. ","social_title":"Central bank independence talk. ","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"central-bank-independence-talk","post_date":"2025-10-31T01:42:25.340Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/central-bank-independence-talk","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":61},"restacks":13,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":177620746,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This is the 10 minute version of my longer post on central bank independence, for the Peterson Institute Conference on Central Bank Independence Oct 31","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This is the 10 minute version of my longer post on central bank independence, for the Peterson Institute Conference on Central Bank Independence Oct 31","wordcount":1737,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":61,"comment_count":19,"child_comment_count":11,"audio_items":[{"post_id":177620746,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/177620746/tts/95286a11-e7f4-4738-bcc5-5afada97635f/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":177437013,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Central Bank Independence","social_title":"Central Bank Independence","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"central-bank-independence-8af","post_date":"2025-10-29T04:02:13.655Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/central-bank-independence-8af","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":49},"restacks":6,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":177437013,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This is a draft essay behind my presentation at the Peterson Institute conference “Central Bank Independence in Practice” Oct 31 2025.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This is a draft essay behind my presentation at the Peterson Institute conference “Central Bank Independence in Practice” Oct 31 2025. A pdf version is available on my website here, which you may want if this is too big for your email. By Friday I will boil it down to 10 minutes! Eventually I’ll post the short version too.","wordcount":10807,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":49,"comment_count":14,"child_comment_count":8,"audio_items":[{"post_id":177437013,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/177437013/tts/1dda0ca0-9e8d-4a40-ab01-adcd6958ede5/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":177183275,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"A tale of regulation","social_title":"A tale of regulation","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"a-tale-of-regulation","post_date":"2025-10-26T16:01:57.593Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/a-tale-of-regulation","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":119},"restacks":11,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":177183275,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Holman Jenkins writes in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Holman Jenkins writes in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal","wordcount":887,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":119,"comment_count":34,"child_comment_count":29,"audio_items":[{"post_id":177183275,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/177183275/tts/c7089152-2431-4625-a3f9-06b9fc054723/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":177132706,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"A note on tariffs from the real world","social_title":"A note on tariffs from the real world","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"a-note-on-tariffs-from-the-real-world","post_date":"2025-10-25T23:44:25.713Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/a-note-on-tariffs-from-the-real-world","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":125},"restacks":18,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":177132706,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I had an interesting correspondence with the CEO of a fairly large retailer, in response to the latest Goodfellows.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I had an interesting correspondence with the CEO of a fairly large retailer, in response to the latest Goodfellows. He/she and it will remain anonymous for obvious reasons. It informs a lot of important economic questions.","wordcount":923,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"7183e955-3b7a-4ede-9c75-b0924d798e0a","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Macroeconomics","slug":"macroeconomics","hidden":false},{"id":"83ab53a0-7a8d-489b-a53b-f2ee10a567cf","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Exchange Rates","slug":"exchange-rates","hidden":false},{"id":"d078acd3-7b62-4d63-b1f9-8b0b23d64aab","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Trade","slug":"trade","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":125,"comment_count":176,"child_comment_count":34,"audio_items":[{"post_id":177132706,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/177132706/tts/0868615b-0654-4bb1-9616-8558ab46785b/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":176889051,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Trump's monetary policy desires aren't crazy","social_title":"Trump's monetary policy desires aren't crazy","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"trumps-monetary-policy-desires-arent","post_date":"2025-10-23T03:46:59.519Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/trumps-monetary-policy-desires-arent","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":89},"restacks":21,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F_mf!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F96e5e91d-24da-4c74-9c87-f9c2ac175253_1056x626.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":176889051,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"This is a WSJ OpEd that I will publish in full in 30 days.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"This is a WSJ OpEd that I will publish in full in 30 days. Follow the link if you’re a subscriber now.","wordcount":1801,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[226,130,134],"population":7},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[107.62987012987013,24.97012987012988,28.414285714285768],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[252,156,156],"population":3},"Muted":{"rgb":[153,94,94],"population":3},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[137,77,108],"population":7},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[205,160,176],"population":6}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":89,"comment_count":63,"child_comment_count":31,"audio_items":[{"post_id":176889051,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/176889051/tts/e2fc95a7-0bab-4d7a-9175-e83f2f70c887/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":176694595,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Knowledge, Decisions, and Incentives ","social_title":"Knowledge, Decisions, and Incentives ","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"knowledge-decisions-and-incentives","post_date":"2025-10-20T23:51:54.961Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/knowledge-decisions-and-incentives","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":128},"restacks":20,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MdQa!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F110317d0-d8ec-432f-99ba-2504767404bd_991x1500.jpeg","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":176694595,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"(This is an essay about Tom Sowell’s Knowledge and Decisions. I prepared it for a panel discussion at the Hoover Tom Sowell celebration, which will necessarily be much shorter.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"(This is an essay about Tom Sowell’s Knowledge and Decisions. I prepared it for a panel discussion at the Hoover Tom Sowell celebration, which will necessarily be much shorter. This will get edited and updated for Hoover, and I’ll keep an updated pdf version on my webpage","wordcount":9505,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"7311bf57-6406-474c-b791-b04f4b5e62b3","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Economists","slug":"economists","hidden":false},{"id":"8de44ac2-4d4a-42da-98fc-aa6e7ffce0bb","publication_id":2178684,"name":"supply and demand","slug":"supply-and-demand","hidden":false},{"id":"ad99362f-e79b-4d78-861c-5296f4a141ef","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Disincentives ","slug":"disincentives","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d7f607cc-3e08-44c9-8df1-b866875f4398","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Politics","slug":"politics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[156,140,68],"population":8},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[76,76,36],"population":3},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[232,224,131],"population":134},"Muted":{"rgb":[156,140,76],"population":790},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[91,87,59],"population":743},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[204,196,172],"population":20}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":128,"comment_count":26,"child_comment_count":23,"audio_items":[{"post_id":176694595,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/176694595/tts/1f9ff185-cd6d-404b-93ec-f8579046b4ac/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":175572736,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Swiss reflections","social_title":"Swiss reflections","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"swiss-reflections","post_date":"2025-10-13T23:44:48.767Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/swiss-reflections","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":103},"restacks":13,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7vLV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe9fbabfc-0f80-4581-afaf-715a03fde173_1320x450.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":175572736,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"I’m just home from Switzerland, where I gave the Karl Brunner Lecture. It is always eye opening to travel and see how other countries do things, and leads me to question basic assumptions.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"I’m just home from Switzerland, where I gave the Karl Brunner Lecture. It is always eye opening to travel and see how other countries do things, and leads me to question basic assumptions.","wordcount":1797,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"83ab53a0-7a8d-489b-a53b-f2ee10a567cf","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Exchange Rates","slug":"exchange-rates","hidden":false},{"id":"8728bfae-bc52-4969-aef6-af183e8b1eea","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Monetary Policy","slug":"monetary-policy","hidden":false},{"id":"d078acd3-7b62-4d63-b1f9-8b0b23d64aab","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Trade","slug":"trade","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f5a0e954-947d-496c-a661-edf3a7fa58d6","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Inflation","slug":"inflation","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[208,136,76],"population":2},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[105.02389380530974,62.779646017699115,27.57610619469026],"population":0},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[124,181,243],"population":37},"Muted":{"rgb":[78,116,156],"population":3},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[121.18141592920354,72.43805309734513,31.81858407079646],"population":0},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[164,206,207],"population":10}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":103,"comment_count":28,"child_comment_count":17,"audio_items":[{"post_id":175572736,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/175572736/tts/b8fc493a-562f-4e6c-ab6f-45fdc7a90ef5/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":175875583,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Euro Transfers","social_title":"Euro Transfers","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"euro-transfers","post_date":"2025-10-12T13:58:59.850Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/euro-transfers","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":84},"restacks":5,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!wlgm!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F298a7dca-be31-40e9-898a-fceda91f4c6f_550x844.png","cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":175875583,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"On Friday I had the pleasure of discussing a great new paper, “What does it Take?","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"On Friday I had the pleasure of discussing a great new paper, “What does it Take? Quantifying Cross-Country Transfers in the Eurozone” by YiLi Chien, Zhengyang Jiang, Matteo Leombroni, and Hanno Lustig, at the San Francisco Fed Macro-Finance Conference","wordcount":2525,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"743cb57a-9dc6-4bff-85e3-1bbeaea26100","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Euro","slug":"euro","hidden":false},{"id":"d48e276a-feab-4c94-838c-1286fbfd8319","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Commentary","slug":"commentary","hidden":false},{"id":"d780ae03-2a52-4780-9171-770cf2dc0ba8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Fiscal Theory","slug":"fiscal-theory","hidden":false},{"id":"f891ae41-738e-44cb-8149-d1cb5a3476e8","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Banking","slug":"banking","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"coverImagePalette":{"Vibrant":{"rgb":[252,204,4],"population":3394},"DarkVibrant":{"rgb":[4,68,132],"population":1095},"LightVibrant":{"rgb":[252,231,148],"population":30},"Muted":{"rgb":[77,118,168],"population":14},"DarkMuted":{"rgb":[60,100,100],"population":1},"LightMuted":{"rgb":[156,178,203],"population":22}},"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":84,"comment_count":19,"child_comment_count":14,"audio_items":[{"post_id":175875583,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/175875583/tts/501e9831-387d-4a26-91d4-e4352f96ea6d/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false},{"id":175558584,"editor_v2":false,"publication_id":2178684,"title":"Health incentives ","social_title":"Health incentives ","search_engine_title":null,"search_engine_description":null,"type":"newsletter","slug":"health-incentives","post_date":"2025-10-07T22:23:44.090Z","audience":"everyone","podcast_duration":null,"video_upload_id":null,"podcast_upload_id":null,"write_comment_permissions":"everyone","should_send_free_preview":false,"free_unlock_required":false,"default_comment_sort":null,"canonical_url":"https://www.grumpy-economist.com/p/health-incentives","section_id":null,"top_exclusions":[],"pins":[],"is_section_pinned":false,"section_slug":null,"section_name":null,"reactions":{"❤":86},"restacks":13,"restacked_post_id":null,"restacked_post_slug":null,"restacked_pub_name":null,"restacked_pub_logo_url":null,"subtitle":"","cover_image":null,"cover_image_is_square":false,"cover_image_is_explicit":false,"podcast_url":null,"videoUpload":null,"podcastFields":{"post_id":175558584,"podcast_episode_number":null,"podcast_season_number":null,"podcast_episode_type":null,"should_syndicate_to_other_feed":null,"syndicate_to_section_id":null,"hide_from_feed":false,"free_podcast_url":null,"free_podcast_duration":null,"preview_contains_ad":false,"was_imported_self_serve_sync":false,"draft_free_podcast_url":null,"draft_free_podcast_duration":null},"podcast_preview_upload_id":null,"podcastUpload":null,"podcastPreviewUpload":null,"voiceover_upload_id":null,"voiceoverUpload":null,"has_voiceover":false,"description":"Two nice articles came up recently on the health care and insurance mess.","body_json":null,"body_html":null,"has_dynamic_content":false,"truncated_body_text":"Two nice articles came up recently on the health care and insurance mess. Cato’s Mike Cannon, free market health care stalwart, writes in National Affairs, and the WSJ editorial board writes about the 340B mess. I wrote about 340B in July, but it’s nice to see this insane cross-subsidy and classic case of unintended consequences get national attention.","wordcount":3061,"post_preview_limit":null,"language":"en","postTags":[{"id":"368c03fc-b8c0-4f6c-ad99-3319be179468","publication_id":2178684,"name":"Regulation","slug":"regulation","hidden":false},{"id":"8b4eeef8-1e56-424b-b6d5-adadb5812f4f","publication_id":2178684,"name":"health economics","slug":"health-economics","hidden":false}],"teaser_post_eligible":true,"postCountryBlocks":[],"headlineTest":null,"publishedBylines":[{"id":18572918,"name":"John H. Cochrane","handle":"grumpyeconomist","photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!XH8t!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6edc5e62-79ae-4d03-b5f3-4732fbea4277_500x500.png","bio":"Economist at the Hoover Institution","profile_set_up_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:08.062Z","reader_installed_at":null,"publicationUsers":[{"id":2192779,"user_id":18572918,"publication_id":2178684,"role":"admin","public":true,"is_primary":true,"publication":{"id":2178684,"name":"The Grumpy Economist","subdomain":"johnhcochrane","custom_domain":"www.grumpy-economist.com","custom_domain_optional":false,"hero_text":"News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view. I moved from Blogger to Substack in December 2023. For previous posts back to 2011 see my Blogger page at https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com","logo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/af9ce6e0-0adc-47c1-9cc3-9a4766b41ec5_500x500.png","author_id":18572918,"primary_user_id":18572918,"theme_var_background_pop":"#8AE1A2","created_at":"2023-12-13T23:44:46.258Z","email_from_name":null,"copyright":"John H. Cochrane","founding_plan_name":null,"community_enabled":true,"invite_only":false,"payments_state":"disabled","language":null,"explicit":false,"homepage_type":"newspaper","is_personal_mode":false,"logo_url_wide":null}}],"is_guest":false,"bestseller_tier":null,"status":{"bestsellerTier":null,"subscriberTier":1,"leaderboard":null,"vip":false,"badge":{"type":"subscriber","tier":1,"accent_colors":null},"subscriber":null}}],"reaction":null,"reaction_count":86,"comment_count":17,"child_comment_count":10,"audio_items":[{"post_id":175558584,"voice_id":"en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural","audio_url":"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/175558584/tts/57f03d68-c203-4166-909a-758081ca9145/en-US-OnyxTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3","type":"tts","status":"completed"}],"is_geoblocked":false,"hasCashtag":false}]